Report: New Arctic gas unlikely to reach Europe before 2045

Historically, oil and gas projects in the Norwegian Arctic have taken an average of 18.5 years from discovery to production. On that timeline, a gas discovery made in early 2027 would not be expected to enter production until around 2045, the new report finds.

Even under scenarios with faster project development and new export infrastructure, additional Barents Sea gas supplies would remain limited before 2040.

By the time larger volumes could reach the market, EU gas demand is expected to have declined substantially, not least due to the EU’s commitment to decrease its GHG emissions by 90% by that time and become fully carbon neutral by 2050.

The EU’s 2021 Arctic Policy called for oil, coal and gas to remain in the ground in Arctic regions and proposed working towards an international agreement preventing new hydrocarbon development in the Arctic and purchases from new fields there.

Norway has urged the EU to reconsider that position, arguing that new oil and gas development in the Barents Sea could strengthen European energy security.

The WWF-Norway report assesses that claim against historical development times, discovered resources, export infrastructure and projected EU gas demand.

“Europe is being asked to change its Arctic policy today for gas that may not arrive until around 2045. That is too little, too late to strengthen Europe’s energy security, and completely incompatible with meeting EU climate targets,” says Karoline Andaur, CEO of WWF-Norway, adding:

“The Commission should not abandon an important commitment for speculative supplies that cannot meet Europe’s energy needs and would bust carbon budgets.”

The report identifies three key reasons why new Arctic gas would not provide a meaningful response to Europe’s energy-security needs:

• Long development times: Time from discovery to production takes on average 18,7 years in the Barents Sea. Even applying the shorter development times seen elsewhere on the Norwegian continental shelf, new gas would not reach the market before the 2040s.
• Constrained supply: Hammerfest LNG is currently the only export route for Barents Sea gas, and its capacity is expected to remain occupied by existing resources for decades. A new pipeline connecting the Barents Sea to Norway’s offshore gas network has been considered, but the project is currently on hold due to insufficient resources to support the investment. Across the six scenarios modelled in the report, completing a pipeline in 2034 rather than 2040 adds only 0.3–0.5 billion cubic metres to estimated Barents Sea gas exports in 2040. Even including undiscovered resources, a pipeline is expected to operate well below capacity.
• Falling European demand: Significant new Arctic supplies would arrive as EU gas demand is expected to fall sharply. Analysis cited in the report indicates that EU fossil gas demand could fall from approximately 329 bcm in 2024 to around 85 bcm in 2040 under a pathway aligned with a 90% reduction in emissions.

Norway is Europe’s largest gas supplier, meeting around 30% of EU demand. The report does not question existing Norwegian production or Norway’s role as a reliable energy supplier.

The report examines whether future discoveries north of the Arctic Circle could provide additional gas quickly enough and at sufficient scale to strengthen European energy security.

The analysis argues that renewable energy produced in Europe, electrification and energy efficiency can reduce exposure to imported fossil fuels sooner than new Arctic developments. It also examines the security risks associated with costly new energy infrastructure in remote waters close to Russia.

WWF-Norway is calling on the European Commission to retain and strengthen the EU’s opposition to new Arctic oil and gas development, including its commitment not to purchase hydrocarbons produced from new Arctic fields.